At the ISF World Seed Congress 2026 in Lisbon, one message came through clearly: disruption is no longer an exception for global trade. It is part of the operating environment.
In the panel discussion “Shocks, Shifts & Silver Linings: What’s Ahead for Global Seed Markets?”, experts from the World Trade Organization, Business at OECD, and the seed sector explored how geopolitical tensions, worsening climate change, shifting trade relationships, and market volatility are reshaping the way seed moves around the world.
The discussion, moderated by Susannah Savage, Agriculture and Commodities Correspondent of the Financial Times, was frank about the challenges. But it also pointed to a clear opportunity: in a disrupted world, the seed sector has a central role in ensuring that agri-food systems are resilient.
Dr. Edwini Kessie, Director of the Agriculture and Commodities Division of the WTO, emphasized that, despite persistent turbulence, the rules-based multilateral trading system continues to provide stability. Global agricultural trade is valued at around USD 2 trillion, and a significant share of global trade still operates on a Most-Favored-Nation basis. For the seed sector, this matters. Seed is one of the most internationally connected agricultural inputs, often moving across borders for breeding, testing, multiplication, treatment, certification, and distribution before reaching growers and farmers.
Predictable trade rules are therefore not abstract policy instruments. They are part of the infrastructure that allows farmers to access the right seed at the right time.
At the same time, the panel made clear that trade uncertainty is now the new norm. Geopolitical shifts, rising freight costs, the current fertilizer price volatility, and changing market access conditions are already affecting decisions across the value chain. Farmers are adjusting crop rotations. Seed companies are rethinking supply chains. Businesses must become more agile, more diversified, and more attentive to risk.
“Trade uncertainty is the new norm. It has happened for the last couple of years and that’s not just for the seeds industry, it’s for business broadly.” – Hanni Rosenbaum
Climate change adds another layer of complexity. More frequent droughts, floods, heat stress, and pest pressures are changing what farmers need from seed. Lorena Basso, ISF Vice-President (elected President in Lisbon) and President of Basso Semillas, framed this challenge as a call to action for the seed sector. Climate change is a serious threat, but it also reinforces the value of innovation, particularly climate-resilient breeding and seed technologies that help farmers adapt and protect yields.
Hanni Rosenbaum, Executive Director of Business at OECD, highlighted that innovation is already changing the equation. Since 1990, agricultural output in OECD countries has increased while land use has decreased, showing how technology and productivity gains can support more sustainable agriculture. For the seed sector, this is a powerful reminder that improved varieties and better genetics, coupled with seed-related innovations, are essential to producing more with less.
Looking ahead, the panel expressed cautious optimism about the future of multilateralism. Trade rules must evolve to address modern challenges such as digital trade, subsidy reform, sustainability, and food security. But countries continue to recognize the value of a system that provides predictability, fairness, and cooperation.
“Challenges are opportunities. The opportunity is how to increase food, how to increase fuels, and how to increase feed. So that is our challenges, and innovation is key to solve these.” – Lorena Basso
In an uncertain world, seed remains one of the most practical sources of stability and resilience. The task ahead is to keep it moving, keep innovating, and keep it accessible to the farmers who need it at the right time.#
Watch the full session on Channel World Seed.
For more information about this panel, contact Dr. Khaoula Belhaj-Fragniere of the ISF Secretariat.
